“We are techies in Silicon Valley, but we are also laborers in rural areas.”
That’s how the head of one of the nation’s largest Muslim voter-mobilization groups described the diverse socio-economic backgrounds of Muslim voters during a Sept. 30 talk held as part of the Provost’s Initiative on the Middle East.
Wa’el Alzayat is a first-generation Arab and Muslim American who serves as the CEO of Emgage, an organization that educates and mobilizes Muslim American voters in support of policies that enable our communities to thrive and democracy to flourish.
At his talk at the Sanford School of Public Policy, he showed the predominantly South Asian and Arab audience the political trajectory Muslims are undertaking this election; highlighting important turning points for the community – specifically, the events of October 7, 2023, and September 11, 2001.
Who Are Muslim American Voters?
“They are the most diverse religious group in America, consisting of Black Muslims, South Asians, Arabs, Hispanics, and others,” said Alzayat. This diversity meant that when we talk about Muslim voters, we’re not looking at a homogenous group but rather one with a wide range of perspectives, backgrounds, and priorities.
This is a community not confined to one particular industry or region but spread across the economic and social spectrum, contributing to the U.S. in a wide variety of ways.
But, just because Muslims make up 1-2% of the electorate doesn’t mean their vote doesn’t matter.
After all, in the 2000 presidential election, the deciding factor was the state of Florida, where Bush won by just 537 votes after a contentious recount process. This is 0.0034% of the population, so it’s fair to assume that the Muslim American voting bloc — more than three and a half million people — matters.
Post 9/11 and the War on Terror
Before 9/11, many Muslims supported the Republican Party. George W. Bush and Dick Cheney earned significant support from the Muslim community due to their positions on Palestine and their alignment with conservative values, including opposition to same-sex marriage.
However, the post-9/11 landscape changed everything. Alzayat shared data showing how Muslim Americans, once allied with the GOP, shifted toward the Democratic Party in response to policies like the Patriot Act, increased Islamophobia, and the Iraq War. These events alienated many Muslims, who felt targeted by the government. Since then, the Democratic Party has made strides in embracing Muslim Americans, especially during Obama’s presidency, when over 92% of Muslims supported him.
Post-October 7: The War in Gaza
Alzayat also addressed the current moment, particularly in light of the events in Gaza that began on October 7. He noted that foreign policy has always been central to Muslim voting behavior, especially regarding Palestine, Syria, Kashmir, and other Muslim-majority regions. The Gaza conflict has reignited these foreign policy concerns, driving more political engagement but also creating new divisions within the community.
Post 9/11, Muslims shifted to the Democrats. In the wake of October 7, Muslims are once again, conflicted. Since, according to Alzayat, most of the people in the community are issue voters – the Gaza war serves as one of the most colossal issues.
But neither party, Republican or Democrats, seem to side with defunding the Israeli military.
To no one’s surprise, Alzayat’s data shows a growing number of Muslims leaning toward third-party candidates, a significant shift from the 75% who voted for Biden in 2020.
Other Issues and Where Muslims Stand
As the research from Emgage illustrates, the Muslim community is not monolithic in its political beliefs. While some support progressive causes, such as gay marriage, others align more closely with traditional conservative values. This generational divide is becoming more pronounced, with younger Muslims more open to progressive social policies while older generations hold onto more conservative positions.
Issues like abortion are far from settled within the community, with different sects interpreting Islamic law differently. Alzayat pointed out that this diversity of opinion adds another layer of complexity to understanding Muslim American political behavior.
The Road to 2024: Green Party, Trump or Harris?
Alzayat went on to explain how there is no third party alternative, it’s just Trump or Harris, and Emgage has decided to endorse Harris. While he didn’t delve into this deeply, it’s reasonable to assume his stance is rooted in the historical impact of third-party votes. In key battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Jill Stein’s votes in the 2016 election arguably swung the result. Clinton lost these states by less than a percentage point and merely half of Stein’s votes could have reversed her losses.
Alzayat explained why he endorsed Harris, and not Trump.
According to him, there is no black-or-white answer and his organization could be wrong. It could be business as usual when Harris is elected, but with Trump the “could” will be a “will.”
With Trump’s presidency comes a threat of white supremacy, “We believe there is a dual threat of white supremacy and anti-Palestinians should Trump win based on what he said he will do. Jared Kushner wants to build condos in Gaza and he has been given 100 millions by funders who want to annex the West Bank,” he said.
“That fight has an option to continue if Trump isn’t an option,” he said.
